Short answer

Designers must proactively plan for material scarcity by exploring alternative materials, optimizing material usage, and integrating robust recycling strategies into product lifecycles, rather than solely relying on projected technological fixes.

Field: Resource Management
Source: Nature Communications (2022)
Method: Simulation modeling
Evidence: Strong effect

Despite advancements in battery technology and recycling, a significant cobalt supply shortage is projected to occur between 2028 and 2033, impacting the electric mobility transition. This resource management research insight is drawn from a 2022 study published in Nature Communications. Using Simulation modeling, researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: Designers must proactively plan for material scarcity by exploring alternative materials, optimizing material usage, and integrating robust recycling strategies into product lifecycles, rather than solely relying on projected technological fixes.

Study

Resource ManagementHigh ImpactStrong effect

Cobalt Shortage Inevitable for EV Transition by 2033, Even with Optimistic Tech

Despite advancements in battery technology and recycling, a significant cobalt supply shortage is projected to occur between 2028 and 2033, impacting the electric mobility transition.

Nature Communications · 2022

Key Findings

01Cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks.
02A cobalt supply shortage is projected to be inevitable in the short- to medium-term (2028-2033), even under the most technologically optimistic scenarios.
03Cobalt supply security levels vary by region, underscoring the urgency of increasing primary cobalt supply.

Application

Design takeaway

How to apply

When designing electric vehicles or related infrastructure, conduct a thorough risk assessment of critical material availability, considering projected shortages and regional disparities. Explore design alternatives that reduce reliance on cobalt or incorporate higher percentages of recycled content.

Project actions

01When choosing materials for your design project, research their availability and potential future shortages.
02Consider how your design can be made with fewer rare or critical materials.
03Investigate how your product could be recycled or reused at the end of its life.

Method & Evidence

AimTo assess the extent to which battery technology advancements and recycling efforts will alleviate global and regional cobalt demand-supply imbalances for electric mobility.

MethodSimulation modeling

ProcedureThe study simulated historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles, incorporating both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resolution for key economic areas.

ContextElectric mobility transition, battery material supply chains

Variables

IV["Advancements in cobalt-free battery technology","Progress in battery recycling rates"]

DV["Global cobalt demand-supply imbalance","Cobalt supply security levels by region"]

CV["Historical cobalt cycles","End uses of cobalt (traditional and emerging)","Regional resolution (China, US, Japan, EU, Rest of World)"]

Strengths & Limitations

Strengths

+Provides a quantitative simulation of future material supply.
+Includes regional analysis, highlighting diverse impacts.
+Considers multiple strategies (tech and recycling) for mitigation.

Limitations

The exact timing and severity of shortages can be difficult to predict accurately, and future technological breakthroughs might alter these projections.

Reliability & validity

The study's validity relies on the accuracy of its simulation models and the assumptions made about technological progress and adoption rates. Reliability is supported by the use of quantitative modeling techniques.

Think critically

How might a designer or engineer influence policy or industry practices to mitigate the projected cobalt shortage, beyond just technological solutions?

Design Principles

"Anticipate and mitigate critical material supply chain risks through material diversification, substitution, and circular economy principles."

This insight highlights a critical bottleneck in the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Designers and engineers must consider material sourcing and potential supply chain disruptions when developing new products and systems, as technological optimism alone may not be sufficient to overcome resource limitations.

What This Means for Your Design

Even if we get better at making batteries without cobalt and recycling old ones, we're still going to run out of cobalt for electric cars for a few years around 2030.

How to use in your project

1.Reference this study when discussing the material choices for your design, particularly if your project involves electric vehicles or battery technology.
2.Use the projected shortage timeline to justify your design decisions regarding material selection or alternative solutions.

Add to My Project

Quick Cite

Paragraph starter

Research indicates that even with advancements in battery technology and recycling, a significant shortage of critical materials like cobalt is projected for the electric mobility transition between 2028 and 2033. This highlights the importance of proactive material selection and lifecycle planning in design projects to ensure feasibility and sustainability.

Source

Nature Communications

Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages

journal · 2022

View source

Questions About This Research

What does the research say about cobalt shortage inevitable for ev transition by 2033, even with optimistic tech?: Designers must proactively plan for material scarcity by exploring alternative materials, optimizing material usage, and integrating robust recycling strategies into product lifecycles, rather than solely relying on projected technological fixes. Evidence: Nature Communications (2022).
Why does "Cobalt Shortage Inevitable for EV Transition by 2033, Even with Optimistic Tech" matter for design?: This insight highlights a critical bottleneck in the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Designers and engineers must consider material sourcing and potential supply chain disruptions when developing new products and systems, as technological optimism alone may not be sufficient to overcome resource limitations.
How can designers apply this research?: Designers must proactively plan for material scarcity by exploring alternative materials, optimizing material usage, and integrating robust recycling strategies into product lifecycles, rather than solely relying on projected technological fixes.
What were the main findings?: Cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks.. A cobalt supply shortage is projected to be inevitable in the short- to medium-term (2028-2033), even under the most technologically optimistic scenarios.. Cobalt supply security levels vary by region, underscoring the urgency of increasing primary cobalt supply.
What research method was used?: Simulation modeling.
How strong is the evidence?: Evidence strength is rated Strong effect, based on a 2022 journal from Nature Communications.
What should I do differently in my next project?: When designing electric vehicles or related infrastructure, conduct a thorough risk assessment of critical material availability, considering projected shortages and regional disparities. Explore design alternatives that reduce reliance on cobalt or incorporate higher percentages of recycled content.
What are the limitations?: The study's projections are based on simulated scenarios and technological optimism, and actual outcomes may vary due to unforeseen market dynamics, geopolitical events, or the pace of technological adoption.