Short answer
Designers should proactively develop solutions that decouple economic growth from fossil fuel consumption and resource depletion, anticipating a future with potentially much higher energy demands if current trends continue.
- Field
- Resource Management
- Source
- Global Environmental Change (2016)
- Method
- Integrated Assessment Modelling
- Evidence
- Strong effect
A high-growth, fossil-fuel-dependent development pathway (SSP5) projects a tripling of global energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century. This resource management research insight is drawn from a 2016 study published in Global Environmental Change. Using Integrated assessment modelling, researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: Designers should proactively develop solutions that decouple economic growth from fossil fuel consumption and resource depletion, anticipating a future with potentially much higher energy demands if current trends continue.
Fossil-Fueled Development Triples Energy Demand and Emissions by 2100
A high-growth, fossil-fuel-dependent development pathway (SSP5) projects a tripling of global energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century.
Global Environmental Change · 2016
Key Findings
- 01SSP5 projects up to a doubling of global food demand.
- 02SSP5 projects up to a tripling of global energy demand by 2100.
- 03SSP5 projects up to a tripling of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2100.
- 04SSP5 represents an upper-bound scenario for energy and emissions in current literature.
- 05Mitigation policies are accessible within SSP5, though socio-economic challenges to mitigation are high.
Application
Design takeaway
Designers should proactively develop solutions that decouple economic growth from fossil fuel consumption and resource depletion, anticipating a future with potentially much higher energy demands if current trends continue.
How to apply
When designing products or systems, consider their energy consumption and material lifecycle in the context of projected future resource availability and demand.
Project actions
- 01When researching materials, consider their energy cost to produce and their potential for recycling.
- 02When designing a product, think about how much energy it will use over its entire life.
Method & Evidence
Variables
Strengths & Limitations
Strengths
- +Utilizes a sophisticated integrated assessment modeling framework.
- +Provides a high-end reference scenario for comparison with other future pathways.
Limitations
These are projections based on models, not guaranteed futures. Real-world events can significantly alter these trajectories.
Reliability & validity
The validity of the projections relies heavily on the assumptions embedded within the REMIND-MAgPIE model and the accuracy of future socio-economic and technological forecasts.
Think critically
How might a designer's choices today influence whether we move towards a high-demand, fossil-fuel-dependent future or a more sustainable one?
Design Principles
"Design for resource efficiency and a transition away from fossil fuels to meet escalating global demands."
This projection highlights the critical need for designers and engineers to consider the long-term resource implications of current design choices. Understanding these intensive resource demands is crucial for developing sustainable solutions and mitigating environmental impact.
What This Means for Your Design
Imagine a future where we use three times more energy and create three times more pollution because we keep relying on old energy sources. This research shows how that could happen.
How to use in your project
- 1.Use the projected increases in energy and resource demand as a justification for exploring alternative, more sustainable design solutions in your project.
Add to My Project
Quick Cite
Paragraph starter
The SSP5 scenario, as outlined by Kriegler et al. (2016), projects a significant escalation in global resource demands, with energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions potentially tripling by 2100 due to a fossil-fuel-intensive development path. This highlights the critical need for design projects to prioritize resource efficiency and explore low-carbon alternatives to mitigate future environmental pressures.
Source
Global Environmental Change
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
journal · 2016
View sourceQuestions About This Research
- What does the research say about fossil-fueled development triples energy demand and emissions by 2100?
- Designers should proactively develop solutions that decouple economic growth from fossil fuel consumption and resource depletion, anticipating a future with potentially much higher energy demands if current trends continue. Evidence: Global Environmental Change (2016).
- Why does "Fossil-Fueled Development Triples Energy Demand and Emissions by 2100" matter for design?
- This projection highlights the critical need for designers and engineers to consider the long-term resource implications of current design choices. Understanding these intensive resource demands is crucial for developing sustainable solutions and mitigating environmental impact.
- How can designers apply this research?
- Designers should proactively develop solutions that decouple economic growth from fossil fuel consumption and resource depletion, anticipating a future with potentially much higher energy demands if current trends continue.
- What were the main findings?
- SSP5 projects up to a doubling of global food demand.. SSP5 projects up to a tripling of global energy demand by 2100.. SSP5 projects up to a tripling of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2100.. SSP5 represents an upper-bound scenario for energy and emissions in current literature.
- What research method was used?
- Integrated Assessment Modelling.
- How strong is the evidence?
- Evidence strength is rated Strong effect, based on a 2016 journal from Global Environmental Change.
- What should I do differently in my next project?
- When designing products or systems, consider their energy consumption and material lifecycle in the context of projected future resource availability and demand.
- What are the limitations?
- The accuracy of long-term projections is subject to numerous assumptions about technological advancement, policy implementation, and societal behavior.