Short answer
Incorporate scenario planning that models user behaviour under extreme conditions to design more resilient infrastructure and contingency strategies.
- Field
- Innovation & Design
- Source
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2016)
- Method
- Mixed-methods research (qualitative foresight and quantitative simulation)
- Sample
- 2000+ participants
- Evidence
- Strong effect
Integrating qualitative foresight with quantitative simulation in infrastructure planning can better prepare for disruptions caused by extreme weather. This innovation & design research insight is drawn from a 2016 study published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Using Mixed-methods research (qualitative foresight and quantitative simulation) with 2000+ participants, researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: Incorporate scenario planning that models user behaviour under extreme conditions to design more resilient infrastructure and contingency strategies.
Scenario planning for infrastructure resilience can mitigate extreme weather impacts on travel behaviour.
Integrating qualitative foresight with quantitative simulation in infrastructure planning can better prepare for disruptions caused by extreme weather.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change · 2016
Key Findings
- 01Weather-related disruptions significantly impact travel behaviour, leading some travellers to cancel important trips.
- 02Despite disruptions, the majority of travellers would still attempt to travel.
- 03A mixed-method approach using SQF and discrete choice simulation offers a more robust planning tool than linear prediction models.
Application
Design takeaway
Incorporate scenario planning that models user behaviour under extreme conditions to design more resilient infrastructure and contingency strategies.
How to apply
When planning infrastructure projects susceptible to environmental changes, develop multiple plausible future scenarios and simulate how different user groups might behave within those scenarios to inform design and contingency planning.
Project actions
- 01When defining your design problem, consider potential future environmental or societal changes.
- 02Use scenario planning to explore different future contexts for your design.
- 03Think about how users might behave differently in these future scenarios and how that impacts your design.
Method & Evidence
Variables
Strengths & Limitations
Strengths
- +Employs a novel mixed-methods approach combining qualitative and quantitative techniques.
- +Utilizes a large dataset from a real-world case study.
- +Addresses a critical issue of climate change impact on infrastructure.
Limitations
It can be challenging to accurately predict future scenarios and user behaviour. The data collected might be based on hypothetical situations rather than actual behaviour.
Reliability & validity
The reliability of the simulation depends on the quality of the stated preference data and the accuracy of the discrete choice model. Validity is enhanced by the mixed-methods approach, which grounds quantitative simulations in qualitative foresight, and by the large sample size.
Think critically
To what extent can we truly predict user behaviour in unforeseen future scenarios, and how does this uncertainty impact the reliability of infrastructure planning based on such predictions?
Design Principles
"Design for resilience by anticipating and planning for disruptive events through scenario-based modelling of user behaviour."
This research highlights the need for robust planning methods that account for unpredictable environmental factors. By simulating user behaviour under various climate scenarios, designers and engineers can develop more resilient infrastructure and effective contingency plans, ultimately minimising disruption and improving user experience.
What This Means for Your Design
When designing things like roads or train lines, it's important to think about what might happen in the future, like really bad weather. This study shows that by imagining different future situations and seeing how people might react (like deciding not to travel), we can design better systems that are less likely to fail and have plans for when things go wrong.
How to use in your project
- 1.Use the concept of scenario planning to explore future contexts for your design project.
- 2.Discuss how your design addresses potential disruptions identified in your scenarios.
- 3.Reference the mixed-method approach as a way to investigate complex future challenges.
Add to My Project
Quick Cite
Paragraph starter
This research highlights the importance of scenario planning in anticipating future challenges for infrastructure. By combining qualitative foresight with quantitative simulation, it demonstrates how to model user behaviour under uncertain conditions, such as extreme weather. This approach allows for the development of more resilient designs and effective contingency plans, moving beyond linear predictions to create robust solutions for complex future problems.
Source
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Improving scenario methods in infrastructure planning: A case study of long distance travel and mobility in the UK under extreme weather uncertainty and a changing climate
journal · 2016
View sourceQuestions About This Research
- What does the research say about scenario planning for infrastructure resilience can mitigate extreme weather impacts on travel behaviour?
- Incorporate scenario planning that models user behaviour under extreme conditions to design more resilient infrastructure and contingency strategies. Evidence: Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2016).
- Why does "Scenario planning for infrastructure resilience can mitigate extreme weather impacts on travel behaviour." matter for design?
- This research highlights the need for robust planning methods that account for unpredictable environmental factors. By simulating user behaviour under various climate scenarios, designers and engineers can develop more resilient infrastructure and effective contingency plans, ultimately minimising disruption and improving user experience.
- How can designers apply this research?
- Incorporate scenario planning that models user behaviour under extreme conditions to design more resilient infrastructure and contingency strategies.
- What were the main findings?
- Weather-related disruptions significantly impact travel behaviour, leading some travellers to cancel important trips.. Despite disruptions, the majority of travellers would still attempt to travel.. A mixed-method approach using SQF and discrete choice simulation offers a more robust planning tool than linear prediction models.
- What research method was used?
- Mixed-methods research (qualitative foresight and quantitative simulation) with 2000+ participants.
- How strong is the evidence?
- Evidence strength is rated Strong effect, based on a 2016 journal from Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
- What should I do differently in my next project?
- When planning infrastructure projects susceptible to environmental changes, develop multiple plausible future scenarios and simulate how different user groups might behave within those scenarios to inform design and contingency planning.
- What are the limitations?
- The study focused on a specific route (London-Glasgow) and may not be generalizable to all long-distance travel or infrastructure types. The accuracy of stated preference data relies on hypothetical choices.