Short answer

Future mobility solutions require not only technological innovation but also a strategic re-evaluation of existing business frameworks to ensure long-term viability.

Field: Innovation & Design
Source: ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien) (2016)
Method: Qualitative research using the Delphi method
Sample: Not explicitly stated, but implied to be a group of experts from specific industries.
Evidence: Moderate effect

While a significant majority of industry experts anticipate the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles, there is less confidence regarding the immediate business prospects for current automotive companies, suggesting a need for strategic foresight. This innovation & design research insight is drawn from a 2016 study published in ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien). Using Qualitative research using the delphi method with Not explicitly stated, but implied to be a group of experts from specific industries., researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: Future mobility solutions require not only technological innovation but also a strategic re-evaluation of existing business frameworks to ensure long-term viability.

Study

Innovation & DesignHigh ImpactModerate effect

Autonomous vehicle adoption hinges on expert consensus and business model adaptation

ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien) · 2016

Key Findings

01Approximately 80% of experts believe autonomous vehicles will be adapted in the near future.
02A smaller percentage of experts are confident about the bright future for current businesses in the automobile industry, anticipating dramatic changes and a 'survival of the fittest' scenario.

Application

Design takeaway

Future mobility solutions require not only technological innovation but also a strategic re-evaluation of existing business frameworks to ensure long-term viability.

How to apply

Conduct foresight workshops with diverse stakeholders to gauge expert opinions on emerging technologies and their potential impact on your industry.

Project actions

01When researching future technologies, consider gathering opinions from industry professionals.
02Think about how new technologies might change existing business models, not just the products themselves.

Method & Evidence

AimWhat are the perspectives of Austrian experts on the adaptation of autonomous vehicles and the business prospects for current industries in the context of their widespread adoption?

MethodQualitative research using the Delphi method

ProcedureExperts from public procurement, energy, and the automobile industry participated in a workshop. Following a presentation and discussion on autonomous vehicles, their opinions on adaptation and business prospects were collected, visualized, and analyzed using descriptive statistics.

SampleNot explicitly stated, but implied to be a group of experts from specific industries.

ContextUrban mobility, automotive industry, future technologies

Variables

IVExpert background and industry sector

DVPerceived likelihood of autonomous vehicle adoption; Perceived business prospects for current industries

CVWorkshop setting, presentation content, discussion topics

Strengths & Limitations

Strengths

+Utilizes a structured expert consultation method (Delphi).
+Addresses both technological adoption and business implications.

Limitations

Expert opinions can be subjective and may not always be accurate predictions. The study's focus on Austria might limit its generalizability.

Reliability & validity

Reliability could be improved by using a larger, more diverse expert panel and potentially multiple rounds of Delphi. Validity is supported by the focus on expert opinion within a specific domain, but generalizability is limited.

Think critically

To what extent do expert opinions accurately predict future technological adoption and market shifts, and what are the inherent biases in such predictions?

Design Principles

"Anticipate market disruption by integrating technological foresight with strategic business planning."

Understanding expert perspectives on the future of mobility is crucial for anticipating market shifts and identifying potential disruptions. This insight highlights the dual challenge of technological integration and the necessary evolution of business strategies to remain competitive in an autonomous future.

What This Means for Your Design

Experts think self-driving cars will be common soon, but they're not sure if today's car companies will do well because things will change a lot.

How to use in your project

1.Use this research to justify investigating the future market trends for your design project.
2.Cite this study when discussing the potential challenges and opportunities presented by new technologies in your design context.

Add to My Project

Quick Cite

Paragraph starter

This research highlights the critical need to consider both the technological feasibility and the strategic business implications of innovation. As evidenced by expert opinions, while the adoption of autonomous vehicles is anticipated, the future business landscape for current automotive companies remains uncertain, necessitating proactive adaptation and strategic foresight in design projects.

Source

ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien)

Innovation in mobility: Austrian Expert’s Perspective on the future of urban mobility with self-driving cars.

journal · 2016

View source

Questions About This Research

What does the research say about autonomous vehicle adoption hinges on expert consensus and business model adaptation?: Future mobility solutions require not only technological innovation but also a strategic re-evaluation of existing business frameworks to ensure long-term viability. Evidence: ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien) (2016).
Why does "Autonomous vehicle adoption hinges on expert consensus and business model adaptation" matter for design?: Understanding expert perspectives on the future of mobility is crucial for anticipating market shifts and identifying potential disruptions. This insight highlights the dual challenge of technological integration and the necessary evolution of business strategies to remain competitive in an autonomous future.
How can designers apply this research?: Future mobility solutions require not only technological innovation but also a strategic re-evaluation of existing business frameworks to ensure long-term viability.
What were the main findings?: Approximately 80% of experts believe autonomous vehicles will be adapted in the near future.. A smaller percentage of experts are confident about the bright future for current businesses in the automobile industry, anticipating dramatic changes and a 'survival of the fittest' scenario.
What research method was used?: Qualitative research using the Delphi method with Not explicitly stated, but implied to be a group of experts from specific industries..
How strong is the evidence?: Evidence strength is rated Moderate effect, based on a 2016 journal from ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien).
What should I do differently in my next project?: Conduct foresight workshops with diverse stakeholders to gauge expert opinions on emerging technologies and their potential impact on your industry.
What are the limitations?: The study is based on expert opinion from a specific region (Austria) and may not reflect global perspectives. The Delphi method, while structured, relies on subjective expert judgments.