Short answer

Designers must move beyond current comfort standards and proactively design for future climate conditions, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Mediterranean.

Field: Human Factors
Source: Sustainability (2018)
Method: Mixed-methods research combining on-site monitoring and computer simulations.
Evidence: Strong effect

Existing residential buildings in Mediterranean climates, designed without considering future climate change, are projected to fall below acceptable adaptive thermal comfort levels in the coming decades. This human factors research insight is drawn from a 2018 study published in Sustainability. Using Mixed-methods research combining on-site monitoring and computer simulations., researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: Designers must move beyond current comfort standards and proactively design for future climate conditions, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Mediterranean.

Study

Human FactorsHigh ImpactStrong effect

Future Discomfort: Mediterranean Homes Will Fail Adaptive Comfort Standards by 2050 Due to Climate Change

Sustainability · 2018

Key Findings

01Current adaptive thermal comfort levels in the studied dwelling are satisfactory.
02Future climate change projections indicate recurrent discomfort due to hot conditions by 2050 and 2080.
03Naturally ventilated dwellings in this climate are vulnerable to future warming trends.

Application

Design takeaway

Designers must move beyond current comfort standards and proactively design for future climate conditions, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Mediterranean.

How to apply

When designing or retrofitting buildings in warm climates, use climate projection data to simulate future thermal comfort and incorporate adaptive strategies to mitigate predicted overheating.

Project actions

01When researching existing buildings, consider their original design context and how it might be affected by future environmental changes.
02Use climate data for future projections to inform your design decisions, rather than relying solely on current conditions.

Method & Evidence

AimTo assess the current and future adaptive thermal comfort of inhabitants in existing naturally ventilated dwellings in a Mediterranean climate under projected global warming scenarios.

MethodMixed-methods research combining on-site monitoring and computer simulations.

ProcedureThe study involved monitoring comfort conditions within a representative 1973-built apartment in Southern Spain. Computer simulations were then used to assess current thermal comfort levels based on EN 15251:2007 and ASHRAE 55-2013 standards. Further simulations were conducted for projected climate conditions in 2020, 2050, and 2080 to evaluate future comfort levels.

ContextResidential buildings in Mediterranean climates, specifically existing housing stock.

Variables

IV["Future climate projections (temperature, humidity)","Building age and construction type","Natural ventilation strategies"]

DV["Adaptive thermal comfort levels (e.g., Predicted Mean Vote, percentage of occupied time within comfort bounds)"]

CV["Location (Mediterranean climate)","Dwelling type (apartment)","Occupant behaviour (assumed typical usage)"]

Strengths & Limitations

Strengths

+Combines real-world monitoring with simulation for a comprehensive analysis.
+Addresses a critical issue of climate change impact on existing buildings.
+Uses established comfort standards (EN 15251, ASHRAE 55).

Limitations

It can be challenging to accurately predict future climate data and occupant behaviour. The specific building chosen might not represent all existing dwellings in the region.

Reliability & validity

Reliability could be enhanced by using multiple monitoring devices and extending the monitoring period. Validity is supported by using established comfort standards and representative building data, but future climate predictions introduce inherent uncertainty.

Think critically

To what extent should current design standards be revised to proactively address predicted future climate conditions, and what are the economic and practical implications of such revisions for the existing building stock?

Design Principles

"Design for future climate resilience by integrating adaptive comfort models that account for projected environmental changes."

This research highlights a critical design challenge for the built environment. As climate change progresses, buildings designed for current comfort standards will become inadequate, leading to increased discomfort and potential reliance on energy-intensive cooling systems. Designers must proactively integrate future climate projections into their design strategies for existing and new structures.

What This Means for Your Design

Old houses in sunny places like Spain might be comfy now, but they won't be in the future because it's going to get hotter. Designers need to think about this when building or fixing houses.

How to use in your project

1.Reference this study when discussing the importance of considering future climate conditions in your design proposal or analysis.
2.Use its findings to justify the need for adaptive or resilient design strategies in your project.

Add to My Project

Quick Cite

Paragraph starter

This research highlights the critical need for adaptive thermal comfort considerations in the design of existing dwellings, particularly in Mediterranean climates. The study found that while current comfort levels are satisfactory, future climate change projections indicate a significant risk of recurrent overheating by mid-century, underscoring the inadequacy of designs that do not account for long-term environmental shifts. This suggests that future design interventions must prioritize resilience and adaptability to ensure occupant well-being and reduce energy demand.

Source

Sustainability

Adaptive Comfort Models Applied to Existing Dwellings in Mediterranean Climate Considering Global Warming

journal · 2018

View source

Questions About This Research

What does the research say about future discomfort: mediterranean homes will fail adaptive comfort standards by 2050 due to climate change?: Designers must move beyond current comfort standards and proactively design for future climate conditions, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Mediterranean. Evidence: Sustainability (2018).
Why does "Future Discomfort: Mediterranean Homes Will Fail Adaptive Comfort Standards by 2050 Due to Climate Change" matter for design?: This research highlights a critical design challenge for the built environment. As climate change progresses, buildings designed for current comfort standards will become inadequate, leading to increased discomfort and potential reliance on energy-intensive cooling systems. Designers must proactively integrate future climate projections into their design strategies for existing and new structures.
How can designers apply this research?: Designers must move beyond current comfort standards and proactively design for future climate conditions, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Mediterranean.
What were the main findings?: Current adaptive thermal comfort levels in the studied dwelling are satisfactory.. Future climate change projections indicate recurrent discomfort due to hot conditions by 2050 and 2080.. Naturally ventilated dwellings in this climate are vulnerable to future warming trends.
What research method was used?: Mixed-methods research combining on-site monitoring and computer simulations..
How strong is the evidence?: Evidence strength is rated Strong effect, based on a 2018 journal from Sustainability.
What should I do differently in my next project?: When designing or retrofitting buildings in warm climates, use climate projection data to simulate future thermal comfort and incorporate adaptive strategies to mitigate predicted overheating.
What are the limitations?: The study focused on a single representative dwelling and a specific Mediterranean location; results may vary for different building types, construction materials, and microclimates.