Short answer
When launching a new retail concept, prioritize understanding the underlying attitudes, social influences, and practical constraints that drive consumer behaviour, rather than solely focusing on product or service attributes.
- Field
- Innovation & Markets
- Source
- International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management (2025)
- Method
- Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with a two-wave survey design.
- Sample
- All households in the catchment areas of two stores (specific numbers not provided in abstract).
- Evidence
- Strong effect
The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) offers a robust framework for predicting consumer choice for new retail establishments, identifying key drivers beyond traditional market factors. This innovation & markets research insight is drawn from a 2025 study published in International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management. Using Structural equation modelling (sem) with a two-wave survey design. with All households in the catchment areas of two stores (specific numbers not provided in abstract)., researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: When launching a new retail concept, prioritize understanding the underlying attitudes, social influences, and practical constraints that drive consumer behaviour, rather than solely focusing on product or service attributes.
Predicting New Store Patronage: The Theory of Planned Behaviour Outperforms Traditional Models
The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) offers a robust framework for predicting consumer choice for new retail establishments, identifying key drivers beyond traditional market factors.
International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management · 2025
Key Findings
- 01The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) is an appropriate model for predicting store choice.
- 02Beliefs about one-stop shopping, social pressure from family, and car availability are significant predictors of intention and actual shopping behaviour.
- 03Traditional factors like quality, price, and assortment did not predict store choice in the studied cases.
Application
Design takeaway
When launching a new retail concept, prioritize understanding the underlying attitudes, social influences, and practical constraints that drive consumer behaviour, rather than solely focusing on product or service attributes.
How to apply
Before launching a new store or product, conduct surveys to measure consumers' beliefs about convenience, their perceptions of social pressure, and their perceived ease of access. Use these insights to shape marketing and operational strategies.
Project actions
- 01When researching consumer behaviour for a new product or service, consider using frameworks like the Theory of Planned Behaviour to structure your investigation.
- 02Design your research to capture not only stated preferences but also the underlying beliefs and social influences that shape decisions.
Method & Evidence
Variables
Strengths & Limitations
Strengths
- +Empirical testing of a behavioural theory.
- +Use of a two-wave survey to mitigate ex-post rationalisation.
- +Focus on predictive power before store opening.
Limitations
The study's findings are context-specific to grocery stores and may not directly apply to all product categories. The influence of external marketing campaigns was not explicitly controlled for.
Reliability & validity
The use of SEM and a two-wave survey design enhances the reliability and validity of the findings by allowing for the examination of complex relationships and reducing recall bias.
Think critically
To what extent do the findings regarding grocery store choice generalize to other consumer goods or services, and how might cultural differences impact the applicability of the Theory of Planned Behaviour in predicting adoption?
Design Principles
"Consumer adoption of new offerings is best predicted by a combination of attitudinal, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control factors, as outlined by the Theory of Planned Behaviour."
Understanding the psychological and social determinants of consumer choice is crucial for successful market entry and strategic planning in the retail sector. This approach allows for more accurate forecasting of adoption rates for new ventures.
What This Means for Your Design
To figure out if people will shop at a new store, it's more important to know what they *think* and what their *friends and family* think, and if it's *easy* for them to get there, rather than just looking at the price or quality of the stuff sold.
How to use in your project
- 1.Use the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a theoretical framework to guide your research into consumer adoption of a new design solution.
- 2.Adapt the survey questions to measure attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control relevant to your specific design project.
Add to My Project
Quick Cite
Paragraph starter
This research highlights the utility of the Theory of Planned Behaviour in predicting consumer adoption of new retail concepts. By focusing on factors such as perceived convenience, social influence, and ease of access, designers and marketers can develop more targeted strategies that address the underlying psychological drivers of consumer choice, potentially leading to greater market success than solely relying on traditional metrics like price and quality.
Source
International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management
A model for predicting consumer choice to shop in a new grocery store using the Theory of Planned Behaviour
journal · 2025
View sourceQuestions About This Research
- What does the research say about predicting new store patronage: the theory of planned behaviour outperforms traditional models?
- When launching a new retail concept, prioritize understanding the underlying attitudes, social influences, and practical constraints that drive consumer behaviour, rather than solely focusing on product or service attributes. Evidence: International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management (2025).
- Why does "Predicting New Store Patronage: The Theory of Planned Behaviour Outperforms Traditional Models" matter for design?
- Understanding the psychological and social determinants of consumer choice is crucial for successful market entry and strategic planning in the retail sector. This approach allows for more accurate forecasting of adoption rates for new ventures.
- How can designers apply this research?
- When launching a new retail concept, prioritize understanding the underlying attitudes, social influences, and practical constraints that drive consumer behaviour, rather than solely focusing on product or service attributes.
- What were the main findings?
- The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) is an appropriate model for predicting store choice.. Beliefs about one-stop shopping, social pressure from family, and car availability are significant predictors of intention and actual shopping behaviour.. Traditional factors like quality, price, and assortment did not predict store choice in the studied cases.
- What research method was used?
- Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with a two-wave survey design. with All households in the catchment areas of two stores (specific numbers not provided in abstract)..
- How strong is the evidence?
- Evidence strength is rated Strong effect, based on a 2025 journal from International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management.
- What should I do differently in my next project?
- Before launching a new store or product, conduct surveys to measure consumers' beliefs about convenience, their perceptions of social pressure, and their perceived ease of access. Use these insights to shape marketing and operational strategies.
- What are the limitations?
- The findings are specific to the two neighbourhood grocery store cases studied and may not generalize to all retail formats or geographical locations. The study did not account for all potential influencing factors.