Short answer
Integrate future material scarcity and geopolitical risks into the early stages of product development, particularly for technologies reliant on critical raw materials like manganese.
- Field
- Resource Management
- Source
- Sustainable materials and technologies (2025)
- Method
- Forecasting and Scenario Analysis
- Evidence
- Strong effect
Despite its abundance, manganese faces critical supply risks due to escalating demand from renewable energy technologies and geopolitical factors, necessitating strategic resource management. This resource management research insight is drawn from a 2025 study published in Sustainable materials and technologies. Using Forecasting and scenario analysis, researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: Integrate future material scarcity and geopolitical risks into the early stages of product development, particularly for technologies reliant on critical raw materials like manganese.
Manganese Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Threaten Renewable Energy Expansion
Despite its abundance, manganese faces critical supply risks due to escalating demand from renewable energy technologies and geopolitical factors, necessitating strategic resource management.
Sustainable materials and technologies · 2025
Key Findings
- 01Projected increases in manganese production in key countries like Australia, Gabon, Ghana, India, and South Africa.
- 02Potential shortages in Western nations due to declining extraction and rising demand for renewable energy.
- 03BRICS nations are likely to maintain secure manganese supply due to growing production capabilities.
- 04Policy recommendations include increasing product lifecycle times, reducing energy costs for recycling, and fostering peace through trade.
Application
Design takeaway
Integrate future material scarcity and geopolitical risks into the early stages of product development, particularly for technologies reliant on critical raw materials like manganese.
How to apply
When designing products for the renewable energy sector, conduct a thorough risk assessment of critical material supply chains, including manganese. Explore design strategies that reduce material intensity or enable the use of more readily available alternatives.
Project actions
- 01When researching materials for your design project, look beyond just their properties and consider their long-term availability and the geopolitical factors affecting their supply.
- 02If your project relies on a critical material, explore strategies for material reduction, substitution, or enhanced recyclability.
Method & Evidence
Variables
Strengths & Limitations
Strengths
- +Utilizes multiple forecasting models for robust predictions.
- +Provides a comprehensive analysis of the mineral value chain and geographical distribution.
- +Offers actionable policy and strategic recommendations.
Limitations
The availability of precise, up-to-date global production data for all critical materials can be challenging. Geopolitical events are unpredictable and can rapidly alter supply chain dynamics.
Reliability & validity
The reliability of the forecasts depends on the accuracy of the historical data and the assumptions made within the forecasting models. Validity is enhanced by the use of multiple forecasting methods and scenario analysis to account for a range of potential future outcomes.
Think critically
How might the projected manganese shortages impact the pace of the global transition to renewable energy, and what design innovations could help mitigate these impacts?
Design Principles
"Design for Resource Resilience: Anticipate and mitigate potential supply chain disruptions for critical materials by exploring alternatives, optimizing material usage, and designing for circularity."
Understanding the future availability of critical materials like manganese is crucial for designers and engineers developing next-generation technologies. Proactive planning can mitigate supply chain disruptions and ensure the feasibility of sustainable energy solutions.
What This Means for Your Design
Manganese is super important for things like electric car batteries, but we might not have enough of it in the future because everyone wants it. Some countries will have plenty, but others might run out, which could stop new green technologies from being made. We need to be smart about how we use and recycle it.
How to use in your project
- 1.Reference this study when discussing the material selection process for your design project, particularly if it involves materials identified as critical or facing supply chain risks.
- 2.Use the findings to justify design decisions related to material efficiency, recyclability, or the exploration of alternative materials.
Add to My Project
Quick Cite
Paragraph starter
The selection of materials for this design project was informed by research indicating potential future supply chain vulnerabilities for critical commodities such as manganese (Sokolova et al., 2025). Given its essential role in renewable energy technologies and projected demand increases, coupled with geopolitical factors, a proactive approach to material sourcing and design for circularity is paramount to ensure long-term product viability and sustainability.
Source
Sustainable materials and technologies
From abundant resource to critical commodity: Forecasting manganese supply and assessing its sustainability
journal · 2025
View sourceQuestions About This Research
- What does the research say about manganese supply chain vulnerabilities threaten renewable energy expansion?
- Integrate future material scarcity and geopolitical risks into the early stages of product development, particularly for technologies reliant on critical raw materials like manganese. Evidence: Sustainable materials and technologies (2025).
- Why does "Manganese Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Threaten Renewable Energy Expansion" matter for design?
- Understanding the future availability of critical materials like manganese is crucial for designers and engineers developing next-generation technologies. Proactive planning can mitigate supply chain disruptions and ensure the feasibility of sustainable energy solutions.
- How can designers apply this research?
- Integrate future material scarcity and geopolitical risks into the early stages of product development, particularly for technologies reliant on critical raw materials like manganese.
- What were the main findings?
- Projected increases in manganese production in key countries like Australia, Gabon, Ghana, India, and South Africa.. Potential shortages in Western nations due to declining extraction and rising demand for renewable energy.. BRICS nations are likely to maintain secure manganese supply due to growing production capabilities.. Policy recommendations include increasing product lifecycle times, reducing energy costs for recycling, and fostering peace through trade.
- What research method was used?
- Forecasting and Scenario Analysis.
- How strong is the evidence?
- Evidence strength is rated Strong effect, based on a 2025 journal from Sustainable materials and technologies.
- What should I do differently in my next project?
- When designing products for the renewable energy sector, conduct a thorough risk assessment of critical material supply chains, including manganese. Explore design strategies that reduce material intensity or enable the use of more readily available alternatives.
- What are the limitations?
- Forecasts are subject to inherent uncertainties in future technological advancements, geopolitical stability, and global economic conditions. The study focuses on manganese and may not fully capture interdependencies with other critical materials.