Short answer

Anticipate and design for an increasing prevalence of age-related health conditions, focusing on accessibility, efficiency, and equity in healthcare solutions.

Field: Human Factors
Source: International Journal of Cancer (2018)
Method: Population-based study utilizing global cancer incidence data and population projections.
Evidence: Strong effect

The global incidence of cancer among older adults is projected to nearly double by 2035, significantly increasing the demand on healthcare resources and highlighting the need for proactive design strategies in health and social care. This human factors research insight is drawn from a 2018 study published in International Journal of Cancer. Using Population-based study utilizing global cancer incidence data and population projections., researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: Anticipate and design for an increasing prevalence of age-related health conditions, focusing on accessibility, efficiency, and equity in healthcare solutions.

Study

Human FactorsHigh ImpactStrong effect

Cancer Incidence in Older Adults to Double by 2035, Straining Healthcare Systems

International Journal of Cancer · 2018

Key Findings

01Global cancer incidence in adults aged 65+ is projected to rise from 6.7 million cases in 2012 to 14 million by 2035.
02Older adults are expected to account for nearly 60% of all global cancer cases by 2035, up from 47.5% in 2012.
03Less developed regions will experience a disproportionately large increase in new cancer cases among older adults.
04Significant regional variations exist in cancer incidence patterns.

Application

Design takeaway

Anticipate and design for an increasing prevalence of age-related health conditions, focusing on accessibility, efficiency, and equity in healthcare solutions.

How to apply

Incorporate age-specific considerations into the design of medical devices, patient interfaces, healthcare facility layouts, and digital health platforms. Consider the economic and social impacts on users and caregivers when designing support services.

Project actions

01When designing for health, consider the age demographics of your target users.
02Research the specific health challenges faced by older adults in your chosen design context.

Method & Evidence

AimTo project the global burden of cancer incidence in older adults by 2035 and analyze its regional distribution.

MethodPopulation-based study utilizing global cancer incidence data and population projections.

ProcedureAnalyzed GLOBOCAN 2012 data to determine cancer incidence in adults aged 65 and older. Applied population projections to estimate future incidence by 2035, assuming constant rates. Examined incidence patterns for all cancer sites combined and for the five most common cancer types across different world regions.

ContextGlobal public health and epidemiology, with implications for healthcare system design and resource allocation.

Variables

IVYear (2012 vs. 2035), World Region

DVNumber of new cancer cases in older adults, Proportion of total cancer cases in older adults

CVAge group (65+), Cancer incidence rates (assumed constant for 2035 projection)

Strengths & Limitations

Strengths

+Utilizes global data for broad applicability.
+Provides future projections to inform long-term planning.

Limitations

The study's projections are based on current rates, which might change. It also doesn't detail the specific types of cancer or their impact on different individuals.

Reliability & validity

The study relies on global databases and statistical modeling, which are subject to data availability and the assumptions made in projections. The use of age-standardized rates helps control for population structure differences, enhancing comparability.

Think critically

How might advancements in medical technology and public health initiatives alter these projections, and what are the ethical considerations in designing for an aging population with increasing health burdens?

Design Principles

"Design for demographic shifts by proactively addressing the evolving needs of aging populations in health and social care systems."

This demographic shift presents a critical challenge for designers, engineers, and researchers. It necessitates a focus on developing accessible, efficient, and supportive solutions for an aging population facing complex health needs. Understanding these trends informs the design of medical devices, healthcare facilities, assistive technologies, and public health interventions.

What This Means for Your Design

By 2035, many more older people will be diagnosed with cancer, meaning doctors' offices and hospitals will need to be ready to help them, and we'll need more ways to support them at home.

How to use in your project

1.Reference this study when discussing the demographic context of your design project, particularly if it involves healthcare, assistive technology, or services for older adults.
2.Use the projected increase in cancer incidence to justify the need for your design solution.

Add to My Project

Quick Cite

Paragraph starter

The projected doubling of cancer incidence in older adults by 2035 (Pilleron et al., 2018) underscores the critical need for design interventions that support an aging population. This demographic shift necessitates the development of accessible, efficient, and user-centered healthcare solutions, including medical devices, assistive technologies, and supportive services, particularly in regions facing resource constraints.

Source

International Journal of Cancer

Global cancer incidence in older adults, 2012 and 2035: A population‐based study

journal · 2018

View source

Questions About This Research

What does the research say about cancer incidence in older adults to double by 2035, straining healthcare systems?: Anticipate and design for an increasing prevalence of age-related health conditions, focusing on accessibility, efficiency, and equity in healthcare solutions. Evidence: International Journal of Cancer (2018).
Why does "Cancer Incidence in Older Adults to Double by 2035, Straining Healthcare Systems" matter for design?: This demographic shift presents a critical challenge for designers, engineers, and researchers. It necessitates a focus on developing accessible, efficient, and supportive solutions for an aging population facing complex health needs. Understanding these trends informs the design of medical devices, healthcare facilities, assistive technologies, and public health interventions.
How can designers apply this research?: Anticipate and design for an increasing prevalence of age-related health conditions, focusing on accessibility, efficiency, and equity in healthcare solutions.
What were the main findings?: Global cancer incidence in adults aged 65+ is projected to rise from 6.7 million cases in 2012 to 14 million by 2035.. Older adults are expected to account for nearly 60% of all global cancer cases by 2035, up from 47.5% in 2012.. Less developed regions will experience a disproportionately large increase in new cancer cases among older adults.. Significant regional variations exist in cancer incidence patterns.
What research method was used?: Population-based study utilizing global cancer incidence data and population projections..
How strong is the evidence?: Evidence strength is rated Strong effect, based on a 2018 journal from International Journal of Cancer.
What should I do differently in my next project?: Incorporate age-specific considerations into the design of medical devices, patient interfaces, healthcare facility layouts, and digital health platforms. Consider the economic and social impacts on users and caregivers when designing support services.
What are the limitations?: The projections assume no changes in cancer rates, which may not hold true due to advancements in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.