Short answer

Proactively explore material alternatives and design strategies that minimize or eliminate the use of rare earth elements in high-growth green technologies to ensure long-term product viability and sustainability.

Field
Resource Management
Source
Digital Collections of Colorado (Colorado State University) (2013)
Method
Scenario modelling and quantitative analysis
Evidence
Strong effect

Future demand for rare earth elements in wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles is projected to increase significantly, driven by market growth and material composition. This resource management research insight is drawn from a 2013 study published in Digital Collections of Colorado (Colorado State University). Using Scenario modelling and quantitative analysis, researchers explored how this design variable affects real-world outcomes. The key design takeaway: Proactively explore material alternatives and design strategies that minimize or eliminate the use of rare earth elements in high-growth green technologies to ensure long-term product viability and sustainability.

Study
Resource ManagementHigh ImpactStrong effect

Rare Earth Magnet Consumption in Green Technologies to Double by 2020

Future demand for rare earth elements in wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles is projected to increase significantly, driven by market growth and material composition.

Digital Collections of Colorado (Colorado State University) · 2013

01

Key Findings

  • 01The base scenario projects strong, exponential growth in the global wind turbine market.
  • 02U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles were projected to decline, while non-U.S. sales were expected to increase through 2020.
  • 03Overall global consumption of magnetic rare earths was projected to increase.
  • 04In 2010, global consumption was 995 tons of neodymium, 133 tons of dysprosium, and 50 tons of terbium; praseodymium consumption was zero.
  • 05Different scenarios presented potential policy choices for reducing rare earth consumption.
02

Application

Design takeaway

Proactively explore material alternatives and design strategies that minimize or eliminate the use of rare earth elements in high-growth green technologies to ensure long-term product viability and sustainability.

How to apply

When designing products that utilize rare earth magnets, conduct a thorough analysis of the projected supply and demand for these materials, and actively investigate alternative materials or design approaches that reduce dependency.

Project actions

  • 01When researching materials for your design project, consider their long-term availability and environmental impact.
  • 02Explore alternative materials that offer similar performance characteristics but have a more sustainable supply chain.
  • 03Investigate design strategies that reduce the overall material requirements of your product.
03

Method & Evidence

AimTo project future consumption of neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium in permanent magnets for wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles under various growth and material composition scenarios.
MethodScenario modelling and quantitative analysis
ProcedureThe study developed base-case scenarios for market growth (wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles) based on historical data. It then calculated implied consumption of rare earth magnet metals by making assumptions about magnet material composition, market share of permanent magnet technologies, and magnet weight per unit. Various scenarios were explored to assess the impact of factors like material composition changes, economic growth, and substitute prices on consumption.
ContextGlobal consumption of rare earth elements in green technology manufacturing (wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles).

Variables

IV["Growth in wind turbine sales","Growth in hybrid electric vehicle sales","Changes in material composition of magnets","Economic growth","Price of substitute materials"]
DV["Consumption of neodymium","Consumption of dysprosium","Consumption of terbium","Consumption of praseodymium"]
CV["Reference year (2010)","Historical data trends","Material composition of permanent magnets (in base scenario)","Market share of permanent-magnet wind turbines and vehicles (in base scenario)","Magnet weight per unit of technology (in base scenario)"]
04

Strengths & Limitations

Strengths

  • +Provides quantitative projections for future material consumption.
  • +Explores multiple scenarios to account for variability.
  • +Focuses on critical materials for key green technologies.

Limitations

The future is uncertain, and projections can be inaccurate. The study might not account for all possible technological advancements or market shifts.

Reliability & validity

The validity of the findings depends heavily on the accuracy of the assumptions made for future market growth and technological changes. Reliability is enhanced by the use of historical data and scenario modelling.

Think critically

How might geopolitical factors or new extraction technologies alter the projected consumption and availability of these rare earth elements?

05

Design Principles

"Material substitution and reduction are key strategies for mitigating supply chain risks and enhancing the sustainability of resource-intensive technologies."

Understanding the projected consumption of critical materials like rare earth elements is crucial for designers and engineers developing sustainable technologies. This insight highlights potential resource constraints and the need for material innovation or alternative solutions.

06

What This Means for Your Design

The study shows that we'll need a lot more special metals like neodymium for things like wind turbines and electric cars in the future, so designers need to think about finding other materials or using less of them.

How to use in your project

  • 1.Use the findings to justify your choice of materials, explaining how you've considered resource availability and sustainability.
  • 2.Reference the projected consumption trends to support your arguments for material innovation or reduction in your design process.
07

Add to My Project

08

Quick Cite

Paragraph starter

This research highlights the significant projected increase in the consumption of rare earth elements for green technologies, underscoring the need for designers to proactively explore material alternatives and reduction strategies to ensure the long-term viability and sustainability of their designs.

09

Source

Digital Collections of Colorado (Colorado State University)

Evaluating United States and world consumption of neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium in final products

journal · 2013

View source

Questions About This Research

What does the research say about rare earth magnet consumption in green technologies to double by 2020?
Proactively explore material alternatives and design strategies that minimize or eliminate the use of rare earth elements in high-growth green technologies to ensure long-term product viability and sustainability. Evidence: Digital Collections of Colorado (Colorado State University) (2013).
Why does "Rare Earth Magnet Consumption in Green Technologies to Double by 2020" matter for design?
Understanding the projected consumption of critical materials like rare earth elements is crucial for designers and engineers developing sustainable technologies. This insight highlights potential resource constraints and the need for material innovation or alternative solutions.
How can designers apply this research?
Proactively explore material alternatives and design strategies that minimize or eliminate the use of rare earth elements in high-growth green technologies to ensure long-term product viability and sustainability.
What were the main findings?
The base scenario projects strong, exponential growth in the global wind turbine market.. U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles were projected to decline, while non-U.S. sales were expected to increase through 2020.. Overall global consumption of magnetic rare earths was projected to increase.. In 2010, global consumption was 995 tons of neodymium, 133 tons of dysprosium, and 50 tons of terbium; praseodymium consumption was zero.
What research method was used?
Scenario modelling and quantitative analysis.
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence strength is rated Strong effect, based on a 2013 journal from Digital Collections of Colorado (Colorado State University).
What should I do differently in my next project?
When designing products that utilize rare earth magnets, conduct a thorough analysis of the projected supply and demand for these materials, and actively investigate alternative materials or design approaches that reduce dependency.
What are the limitations?
Scenarios are based on assumptions about future market growth and technological development, which may not accurately reflect actual outcomes. The analysis focuses on a specific time period (2011-2020) and may not capture longer-term trends.